Hurricane INGRID

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
 
DATA FROM THE TWO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.  WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER LAND.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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