Tropical Storm INGRID

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TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER
THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED
A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM
THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
TRANSIENT.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
45 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS
CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE
ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH
MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE
GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH
OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
 
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 19.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 22.2N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 22.4N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
 72H  17/0600Z 22.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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