Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB.  THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED
ERRATIC MOTION.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS
PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...
WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE
TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD.  THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL.
 
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  NONE
OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE.
 
THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 19.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 19.7N  94.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 20.0N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 20.6N  95.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 23.0N  97.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 23.5N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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