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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013
 
IF I JUST WENT BY THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...I WOULD
PROBABLY DOWNGRADE HUMBERTO TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...
TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS MIGHT NOT BE PURELY APPLICABLE IN THIS
CASE...AND I WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
SUPPORTING DATA BEFORE DECREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN
ARGUMENT COULD ALSO BE MADE THAT MORE DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IN SOME SENSE HUMBERTO LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED NOW THAN IT DID LAST EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
PARTIALLY BECAUSE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAVE
BEEN MASKING THE LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT...BUT HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWARD VERY SOON BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE STORM
SHOULD START FEELING THE EFFECTS OF FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN A
DAY OR TWO...AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY NARROW...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

HUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL REGIME IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.  EVEN THOUGH THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 48 HOURS...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES.  WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO
COULD BE ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4...AND THAT IS
NOW INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 31.4N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 32.2N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 33.6N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 35.1N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 37.1N  41.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 45.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:02 UTC