Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013
 
HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 60
NMI TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 25 KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED TO 35 KT...ASSUMING THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHICH WAS NOT CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT
DATA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
IT IS CURRENTLY ENTANGLED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER THAT TIME...A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WHEN
THE STORM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HUMBERTO.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RECENT WEAKENING AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 27.0N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 28.0N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 29.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 30.0N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 30.9N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 33.7N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 40.0N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 52.0N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC