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Hurricane HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013
 
THE LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF HUMBERTO IS EXHIBITING QUITE
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH A SMALL EYE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING.  DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT ABOUT 
75 KT...WHILE ADT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND CIMSS AMSU SLIGHTLY LOWER. 
THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 75 KT.  A DIRECT HIT BY AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE AT 2250Z PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT
HUMBERTO IS LARGER IN ITS TROPICAL STORM AND 50-KT WIND RADII THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE CDO AND
INDEPENDENT ANALYSES FROM CIRA AMSU SIZE VALUES.

CURRENTLY...HUMBERTO HAS BEEN TRAVERSING OVER WATERS OF 26C AND
THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO MAY BE
AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AS HUMBERTO TRACKS NORTHWARD THEN WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL APPROACH A STRONG
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT
A DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HOSTILE SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSEST TO THE DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL
THEREAFTER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT
HUMBERTO MAY ATTEMPT A COMEBACK STARTING AROUND DAY 5...BUT IT IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE REMAINING AT
THAT TIME AFTER EXPERIENCING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR NEARLY
FOUR DAYS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT 11 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
STEERING INDUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST AFRICA TO ITS EAST. 
IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
AZORES AND FORCE HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE TRACK PREDICTION IS
NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 19.1N  29.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 20.7N  29.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 22.3N  29.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 23.5N  31.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 24.2N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 25.2N  37.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 27.5N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC