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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...
AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE
STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS
SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER
BAND OF CONVECTION.  IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED A MOTION OF 295/8 KT...BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING
AZORES HIGH TO THE NORTH.  TWO DEEP-LAYERED LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTH AFRICA...SHOULD STEER HUMBERTO
NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
NORTH OF HUMBERTO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WERE
REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

ONCE THE INNER CORE OF HUMBERTO REORGANIZES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE STORM REACHES A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HUMBERTO
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 14.6N  27.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.3N  28.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 16.6N  29.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 18.5N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 20.5N  29.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 23.5N  31.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 24.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 25.0N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC