Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5 AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE ABOUT
THE SAME. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS DUE TO A BREAK DOWN
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED HEADING CHANGES...AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 14.4N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 15.0N  27.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 17.9N  28.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 23.7N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 25.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 26.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC