Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO 
EXPAND OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE ASCAT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 50
KT...AND THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS ALSO
EXPANDED SINCE THIS MORNING.  
  
SATELLITE CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO
IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY...WITH A MOTION OF
285/9 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SOON AS A COUPLE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOWS MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 72
HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND THIS SHOULD TURN
HUMBERTO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  

THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER HUMBERTO SHOULD DECREASE
SOON...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE 
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 13.9N  25.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 14.4N  27.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 15.4N  28.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 16.9N  28.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 19.1N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 23.0N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 25.2N  32.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 26.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC