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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013               
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2       6       8       8       8      10
TROP DEPRESSION 15      20      20      23      18      20      22
TROPICAL STORM  83      72      67      59      59      58      55
HURRICANE        2       7       7      10      15      15      14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       6       6       9      13      13      12
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       2       2       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    50KT    50KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   9(23)   3(26)   X(26)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   4(20)   2(22)   X(22)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   9(10)   8(18)   2(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34 46   4(50)   X(50)   1(51)   X(51)   1(52)   X(52)
 
SAN JUAN       34 15   3(18)   2(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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