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Tropical Storm ERIN


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TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  26.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  26.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  25.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N  28.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N  31.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.7N  33.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N  35.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N  40.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N  44.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N  49.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  26.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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