ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY 72 HOURS. ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:55 UTC