Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED...AND IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT ERIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
SOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUB-26C WATER AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF AROUND 15 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND
MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT
LOW. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS AND
DISSIPATION AT DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY
SEVERAL MODELS.
 
ERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK
TOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN
BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE FSU 
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 21.0N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 21.5N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 22.2N  40.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 23.0N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 24.0N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 26.5N  49.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:55 UTC