Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A LARGE COLD CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  SHIP MGSG6 PASSED NEAR THE CENTER
RECENTLY AND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT.  A REVIEW OF THE
HISTORY OF THE SHIP WIND DATA SUGGESTS THE REPORT IS PROBABLY A FEW
KNOTS TOO HIGH...BUT IT EASILY SUPPORTS A 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. 
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
ERIN MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY 36H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT INTO
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THE SSTS NOTABLY INCREASE IN A
FEW DAYS...A COMBINATION OF THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...STRONG SHEAR AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ERIN TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW BY 96H.  THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE EVEN EARLIER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST. 

ERIN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT...
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS HARDER TO LOCATE NOW DUE TO ALL OF THE
CONVECTION.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
AS ERIN ENCOUNTERS A REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H.  THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
36H...THEN IS SHIFTED WESTWARD NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...
GFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT
TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 18.5N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 19.5N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 20.2N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 20.7N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 21.0N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 22.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 24.5N  51.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:55 UTC