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Tropical Storm DORIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013
 
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF DORIAN HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  A 2340 UTC ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS
WEAKENED A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 45 KT.
 
DORIAN IS BEING DRIVEN QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND ITS ESTIMATED
MOTION IS 285/17 KT.  THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
BECAUSE OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE.  THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z RUN AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST AND SLOWEST
TRACK MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE NORTHERNMOST AND FASTEST.  THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT ENDS
UP CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
 
DORIAN IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
INDUCING SOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE LAYER BELOW
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ANY TIME SOON...DORIAN COULD EXPERIENCE
PERSISTENT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON TOP OF THAT...MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AND THE DRY AIR
COULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH
CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL KEEP THE WINDS FLATLINED AT 45 KT THROUGH DAY 3 WITH
NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THIS FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...PARTIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 16.6N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 17.2N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 17.8N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 18.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 19.0N  54.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 20.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 20.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 21.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:53 UTC