Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DORIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

DORIAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH IT WAS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM CIMSS WAS 48 KT.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED.  THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN
SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 15.6N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 16.3N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 17.0N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 17.8N  44.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 18.3N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 19.5N  55.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 20.5N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 21.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:53 UTC