Tropical Storm DORIAN

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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
DORIAN HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT
WHILE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-55 KT.
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA...HOWEVER...DORIAN MAY NOT BE PRODUCING
SURFACE WINDS ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO
THE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT SINCE DORIAN IS A SMALL CYCLONE...SO THE
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE MOTION REMAINS 285/17 KT WITH DORIAN LYING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE RIDGE AND MOVE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...
KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A QUICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
MODELS ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE
WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  IN
ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND
INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5.  THIS
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW
HOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.1N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.7N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.9N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.0N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 20.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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