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Tropical Storm CHANTAL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       4      20      20      15
TROP DEPRESSION  2       4       6      16      38      34      25
TROPICAL STORM  92      74      62      61      40      43      51
HURRICANE        7      21      31      20       3       3       9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      19      26      16       3       3       8
HUR CAT 2        1       2       4       3       X       X       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    60KT    50KT    35KT    35KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   6(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)   3(24)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)   2(20)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   2(23)   X(23)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   6(29)   X(29)   X(29)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  42(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)  18(18)  50(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE          34  X   2( 2)  51(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   2( 2)  30(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   5( 5)  19(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   9( 9)  26(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X  19(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BARBUDA        34  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1  30(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
AVES           34  X  80(80)   3(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
AVES           50  X  23(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
AVES           64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  2  73(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
DOMINICA       50  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  9  81(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
MARTINIQUE     50  X  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  7  43(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBADOS       34 28   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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