Tropical Storm CHANTAL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 10 21 31
TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 11 11 26 35 36
TROPICAL STORM 87 77 70 61 56 41 32
HURRICANE 2 8 17 26 8 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 7 15 22 8 3 1
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 2(31) X(31)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) X(39) X(39)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
AVES 34 X X( X) 21(21) 42(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 52(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 64(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 52(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARBADOS 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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