Tropical Storm CHANTAL

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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA
FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE
AN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF
TO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
PLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS
FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA.  THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25
KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
MOVING AT THAT SPEED. CHANTAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 4 AND 5 THE STERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND
CHANTAL WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 14.4N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 15.8N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 17.4N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 19.3N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1200Z 21.3N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 24.5N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 26.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 27.5N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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