Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWO


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL
IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.  

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 19.3N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.4N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/0600Z 19.2N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:50 UTC