ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED... AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:50 UTC