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Tropical Storm ANDREA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013               
2200 UTC WED JUN 05 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 2200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       3       7      11      21      21      24
TROP DEPRESSION 31      24      27      29      28      23      26
TROPICAL STORM  67      69      61      54      46      50      45
HURRICANE        1       4       5       6       5       6       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       4       5       5       5       5       4
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       X       1       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  20(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  12(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   7(31)   X(31)   X(31)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)  15(15)  16(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   2( 2)  34(36)   8(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   3( 3)  35(38)   6(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   4( 4)  25(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   5( 5)  19(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
VENICE FL      34  1  15(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
TAMPA FL       34  1  17(18)  18(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1  16(17)  33(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  1   5( 6)  13(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  1   7( 8)  17(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  1  13(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  2  25(27)   8(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  1   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:49 UTC