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Tropical Storm ANDREA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL 
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. 

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
MODELS.  
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 27.0N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 32.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0600Z 46.5N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z 52.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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