ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 33 50 62 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 9 46 38 30 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 29 53 20 12 8 NA NA HURRICANE 71 37 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 21 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 16 12 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 3 4 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 3 43(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) P ABREOJOS 50 X 13(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P ABREOJOS 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 91 7(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LORETO 50 34 15(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LORETO 64 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HERMOSILLO 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 1 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAHIA KINO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 2 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GUAYMAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:44 UTC