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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...WEAKENING HURRICANE PAUL APPROACHING CABO SAN LAZARO ON THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...PAUL WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
A FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK
SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAUL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION NEAR PUERTO
CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA VERY SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC