Tropical Storm PAUL

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012
 
...PAUL SKIRTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.4N 113.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAUL IS
SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS AFTERNOON. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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