Tropical Storm PAUL

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST.  PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL
MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  PAUL SHOULD THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
PAUL SHOULD ALSO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
 
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