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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST.  PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.
 
PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAUL IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.  A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF
71 MPH...114 KM/H.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC