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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...PAUL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER SOUTHWESTERN BAJA LATER
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A TURN TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC