Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
*  AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:42 UTC