ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012 PAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS... WITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT PAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. WHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR...PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:44 UTC