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Post-Tropical Cyclone PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...
WITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME.  IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT
PAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.  A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND
ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. 
WHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR...PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36
HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PAUL.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:44 UTC