ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 STRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW- LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER. AFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13 KNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP PAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 24.7N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC