ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ALTHOUGH THE EYE OF PAUL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES...CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 95 KT. PAUL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/17...STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF TO THE WEST OF PAUL. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE CENTER OF PAUL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA PENNISULA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR PICKS UP. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR...SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN SOME ON ITS APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BAJA. AFTER INTERACTING WITH LAND...ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND PAUL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC