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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS A BIT
MISLEADING. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS...AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX....WITH THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATED BY 20-30 N MI. WHILE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...THE 0526 UTC
ASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THESE DATA.
 
PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WESTERLY HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. THE CYCLONE IS
REACHING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
26N 122W SHOULD APPROACH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
CAUSING PAUL TO TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 96 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS
VERTICAL INTEGRITY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.
 
THE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN
THOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A
SHARP INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARING IT...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH SSTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS...AND COULD DECOUPLE ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS ICON AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 14.3N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC