ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012 THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PAUL IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. A TIGHTLY CURVED AND COLD CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 45 KT...A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0...WHILE A 2215Z AMSU INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11...AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY WAS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE STORM. PAUL IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE RIDGE AND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO COME OVER OR NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. BY DAY FIVE...THE WEAKENING REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS PROJECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF MODEL. PAUL IS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF WARM 28C WATERS...VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE HOSTILE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHEAR...SOMEWHAT COOLER SSTS...AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE GFDL DYNAMICAL MODEL...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS A 66% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE INNER CORE DEVELOPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 14.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.8N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 24.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 27.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER LAND 120H 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC