ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM BARELY MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERION FOR CLASSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A RESULT. THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF RAPID WEAKENING AS IT INGESTS COOL...STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALSO MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH SOON MAKE LANE JUST A FADED MEMORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/7. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ACTUALLY JUST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHEARING AWAY...AND THOSE FEATURES ARE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND LANE SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HFIP TV15. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.6N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.1N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 21.4N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 134.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 20.8N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC