ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY 24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15. STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C... AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC