ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS... ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC