ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY DISSIPATED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A 0448 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED STILL SHOWED A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION....WHICH SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SURROUNDED BY A STABLE AIR MASS OVER 21-22C WATERS...KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CIRCULATIONS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06. THE TRACK OF KRISTY SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION TRAVELS AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE LASTEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 25.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 26.3N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0600Z 26.7N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 27.0N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC