ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012 CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KRISTY HAS DECAYED RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES 22C WATER...AND MOVES FARTHER INTO A STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS. KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW MONDAY MORNING...AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. KRISTY IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST...AND A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT KRISTY WILL BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 25.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 25.7N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 26.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 27.0N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC