ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012 KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT VERY TIGHT CIRCULATION...AND THE CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR A CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1756 UTC SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS...AND SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT. THE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 23.2N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 24.0N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC