ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012 KRISTY IS RESILIENT...AND DESPITE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEING OVER COOL WATERS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT DETERIORATED YET. A COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AND INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE ENTIRE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER MUCH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EARLIER. MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO KEEP KRISTY ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND WILL BE STEERED BY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND MOST LIKELY...THE REMANT LOW WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED BY MOST MODELS AND BECOME STEERED BY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 20.6N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 21.1N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 22.3N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC