ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A BURSTING PATTERN. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT WERE COOLING EARLIER HAVE SINCE BEGUN TO GRADUALLY WARM...AND THE CLOUD CANOPY IS NO LONGER EXPANDING. THE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS 3.0 AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. KRISTY SHOULD SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO INDICATE REMNANT LOW STATUS A BIT SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KRISTY JOGGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 295/09. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KRISTY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF KRISTY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND ITS FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW DOWN PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS...VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.6N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 21.8N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 24.0N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 25.8N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 27.0N 119.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC