ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF KRISTY HAS BEEN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OR BRIEFLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0000 UTC WERE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REFORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING OF KRISTY SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN A DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE WILL ALREADY BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT. THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL BASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM MODEL. KRISTY SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 OR 3 DAYS DUE TO COLD WATER. THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING 295/5. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS KRISTY IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. ONLY A SMALL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST WAS MADE FOR THE FIRST 48 H TO COME CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS IT BECOME STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AT DAYS 4-5...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF KRISTY AT THAT POINT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.2N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 22.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 23.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 25.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC