ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES. THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:32 UTC