ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012 ILEANA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DISAPPEARED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 23C ISOTHERM SOON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS THE REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CYCLE OF GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 23.1N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 22.8N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 22.5N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC