ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012 THE EYE OF ILEANA IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY... BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS ILEANA BEGINS TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A STABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE AND IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07...AS ILEANA HAS JOGGED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ILEANA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION BUT NOW LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD-SHIFTING TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALSO FASTER AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 22.6N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 23.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 24.3N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 24.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC