ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF ILEANA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE OVERNIGHT...WITH A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 1043 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWS A RAGGED DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0 FROM TAFB AND 4.5 FROM SAB...AND A BLEND OF THESE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 70 KT. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY. AFTER THAT...ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS ILEANA MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BEND MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF PREDICTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT FAVORS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 20.2N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 20.9N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 21.7N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 23.3N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC